The Mind of a “Reagan Democrat”

Here’s some political strategery from an Instapundit reader:

The Presidential political chess game with the Clintons in 2008 will involve a third party. It is too early to know the issue but it could be immigration.

The Clintons know the democrats cannot win a two candidate race in a national election. The red state blue state problem for democrats is getting worse, not better. The blue states are shrinking in population ratio to the red states at a time when the current ratio will not elect democrats. This is a generational trend that won’t change in Hillary’s political lifetime.

Bring in the third party candidate that erases the red state electoral advantage. Is it risky? Sure it is – a third party could pull more from the democrat base than republican but it depends on the issue.

Reagan is still defeating the democrat party in the south. The true Reagan Democrat (me) is a southern conservative ideologue who chooses common sense over ACLU causes. The democrats may never get us back – but a third party can. An articulate public figure could turn an issue like immigration into a rallying cry for Jacksonian and Reagan Democrats.

Perot did this with the NAFTA issue.

It could happen again.

Wow. First of all, he seems to see politics as an ongoing conflict with “the Clintons.” That’s kind of nuts. And apparently, the ACLU is the opponent of common sense, which is good to know. And of course, Reagan is still defeating these two nefarious forces in the south. Incidentally, I think it’s a little late in the game to call yourself a “Reagan Democrat”. I mean, can I be a “Roosevelt Republican”? I guess I could, but I can’t imagine it would be worth much.

But the main thing is that he’s just wrong about the “red state blue state problem”. So what if the blue states are losing population to the red states? The issue is that the population ratio between the states is irrelevant. To illustrate: as we’ve learned, the 44 democrats in the Senate actually represent more people than do the 55 republicans. In fact, if population really is flowing to the red states, that can only be good news for the Dems. The former blue-staters would be inflating the value of their vote, and assuming that a person’s politics are more determined by who he/she is than where he/she lives, those inflated votes will go to more democrats than republicans.

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